RBA hikes to 4.10% — recession warning — Strait of Hormuz closed — fuel rationing planned — AI wiping 95K+ jobs
Buyers Are Still Buying,
Sellers Still Selling
Rate hikes. Oil crisis. AI job losses. Fuel rationing. The window to sell on your terms is closing.
Right Now, Buyers Are
Still Buying
Pre-approved buyers are actively looking. They locked in rates months ago and are ready to move. But come August and September, the market shifts dramatically.
Buyer Demand Forecast (Indexed)
Listings Coming to Market (Forecast)
Why Now Is Your Best Window
- Pre-approved buyers are actively searching right now with rates they locked in months ago
- Your property gets maximum attention with less competition on the market
- Auction clearance rates are still healthy at 68% — by August they could drop below 40%
- Vendors who wait until August/September will be competing with desperate sellers forced to the market
- Days on market currently sitting at 28 days — forecast to blow out to 85+ days by October
- Every rate hike shrinks buyer borrowing capacity by $30,000 to $50,000
- Selling in a strong position is always better than selling because you have to
Days on Market Forecast
Auction Clearance Rate Forecast
Wall St Bloodbath
$7 Trillion Gone
S&P 500 down 7.5% from highs. Nasdaq in correction territory. Markets aren't buying Trump's peace talks.
- S&P 500 slumped 1.7% overnight — total decline 7.5% from all-time highs
- Nasdaq 100 entered correction territory — down 10% from record highs
- US-Iran peace talks have stalled — Iran rejected 15-point US plan
- Brent crude jumped 5% overnight, back above $100/barrel
- CBA warns Aussie dollar could slide further — hovering at 69 US cents
- ASX 200 futures pointing to 1%+ slide on Friday
What This Means for Property
- Rate cuts are OFF the table — RBA won't cut while global inflation surges
- Borrowing capacity shrinks again — buyers can afford $30,000 to $50,000 less per hike
- Construction costs spike — weaker AUD = more expensive imported materials
- Auction clearance rates will drop as fewer bidders enter the market
- Vendors who list now sell into stronger demand than those who wait
RBA Hikes Rates
Back-to-Back
Board vote was 5-4. Governor Bullock: "If it's hard to get inflation down… recession is possible."
- Back-to-back hikes in Feb and Mar 2026 — first time since 2023
- All 2025 rate relief completely wiped out
- Bond markets pricing 3 more hikes this year
- RBA board split 5-4 — most divided in a decade
- Recession officially on the table for first time since COVID
Cash Rate Timeline
Borrowing Capacity at Each Rate ($K on $100K income)
Oil Crisis &
Strait of Hormuz Closed
Iran mined the Strait of Hormuz after Khamenei's killing. One-third of global seaborne oil — shut off.
- Australia imports 90% of its refined fuel — zero self-sufficiency
- Only 21 days of reserves vs 90 to 175 days for other nations
- 500+ petrol stations already ran dry in regional areas
- IEA released 400M barrels from global reserves — unprecedented
- Iran-Israel war Day 25 — 1M+ displaced in Lebanon
- Fuel heading toward $3.50/litre at the pump
Oil Price Surge (USD/barrel)
Fuel Reserves (Days of Supply)
Iran-Israel War — Day 25
Inflation
Out of Control
3.8% — well above the RBA's 2-3% target. Oil will push it higher.
- Inflation accelerating — 2.4% to 3.8% in 12 months
- Oil shock will flow through to groceries, transport and construction
- Wage growth not keeping up with cost of living
- Q1 2026 forecast: 4.2% — highest since mid-2024
- Higher inflation = higher rates for longer — no relief for borrowers
Inflation Rate — Quarterly
Your Mortgage:
Extra Per Month
+50bps on a standard 25-year variable rate. This is what you're paying right now.
- 1.2M mortgage holders now classified 'at risk' (Roy Morgan)
- $750K mortgage = extra $120/month since February
- Fixed rate window closing fast before May decision
- Record low 1.1% vacancy rate — renters can't escape either
- Forced sales already rising in outer-metro suburbs
Extra Monthly Repayment by Loan Size
Renters
Feel It Too
Landlords pass costs through. Vacancy at 1.1%. Nowhere to go.
- Average weekly rent now $688 — up 7.4% year-on-year
- 1.2M new homes needed but construction costs surging
- Fuel prices driving up building material costs
- Fewer investor purchases = shrinking rental supply
- Regional rents rising even faster than metro
Average Weekly Rent (National)
Building costs surging from fuel prices → fewer homes built → rents keep climbing
Government
Failures Exposed
- No strategic fuel reserves built despite 20 years of warnings
- $40/day fuel rationing plan revealed via FOI documents
- Housing target of 1.2M homes — no credible delivery plan
- Budget deficit spending is itself fuelling inflation
- Liquid Fuel Emergency Act ready to activate — needs Gov-Gen sign-off
No Fuel Security
Lowest reserves in developed world
Budget Blowout
Spending fuelling inflation
Housing Crisis
Homes needed — no plan to deliver
$40 Daily Fuel Cap — Rationing Plan Exposed
FOI documents reveal the government can enforce a $40/day fuel limit per vehicle under the Liquid Fuel Emergency Act.
May Hike?
All Relief Wiped Out
All four major banks forecast a third hike in May — back to the 4.35% peak.
AI Is Destroying
Jobs Right Now
95,500 tech jobs cut in Q1 2026. 20% explicitly linked to AI. Australia's WiseTech cut 2,000 — one-third of its workforce.
- WEF: 92M jobs displaced globally by AI by 2030
- 200K+ Australian jobs at risk across admin, finance and tech
- Companies using 'AI restructuring' as cover for mass layoffs
- Fewer jobs = less borrowing capacity = weaker property demand
- 23K Australian tech jobs already lost in 2026 alone
AI Job Losses — Q1 2026
The Perfect Storm — Contributing Factors
Fewer jobs → less borrowing capacity → fewer mortgage approvals → weaker buyer demand → property pressure
Understanding
Your Options
The market doesn't wait. Here's what you need to know about your position right now, and why acting before August puts you in control.
Thinking of selling?
Right now you have active, pre-approved buyers competing for your home. By August, you'll be one of many sellers competing for fewer buyers. The maths is simple: less competition now = better price.
Want to hold?
If you have stable income, buffer savings, and can stress-test your repayments at 4.35%, you may be fine to hold. But get your numbers checked now, not when rates hit their next peak.
Worried about price?
Property is still a strong inflation hedge. But the pricing window narrows as more listings flood the market. Homes sold in Q2 2026 will outperform those sold in Q3 and Q4 as buyer pools shrink.
Waiting for the market to recover?
The current cycle has pre-approved buyers actively searching. That demand will tighten as rates rise and borrowing capacity falls. Waiting means selling into a market of desperate sellers, not confident ones.
The Market Timeline
Now — June 2026
Pre-approved buyers actively searching. Less competition. Stronger auction results. Best time to sell.
July — August 2026
Rate effects fully hit. Listings begin to surge. Buyers pull back. Market starts shifting.
September+ 2026
Flood of listings. Desperate sellers. Extended days on market. Price reductions. Buyer's market.
Want to Know
Where You Stand?
No pressure. No obligation. Just honest, informed advice about your property in this market.
Tony Lawson
Licensed Real Estate Agent — eXp Realty Australia
For informational purposes only. Data: RBA, ABS, AFR, ABC, Reuters, IEA, SQM Research, Roy Morgan, WEF, TechNode Global. March 2026. RLA 308543